New ideas (4)
Cases added to the trackers this week.
Merger Arbitrage
Spread1.6%
Open caseRXO: C.H. Robinson to buy RXO for $17.25 in cash plus 0.0856 CHRW shares. The two rank first and fifth in North American freight brokerage, and both get about 73% of gross revenue from trucking. MFN Partners (17.04%) supports the deal, which needs a majority of the outstanding shares. The market is fragmented, but C.H. Robinson’s remedy commitment is capped, so antitrust is the main risk.
Spread1.4%
Open caseCBNK: Peoples Bancorp to buy Capital Bancorp for 1.11 shares. Shareholders of both banks must approve the deal by a majority of the outstanding shares, and CBNK insiders with 33.53% have signed support agreements. Bank regulatory approvals are required, but deposit overlap in Greater Washington is limited. Closing is expected in H1 2027.
Spread13.2%
Open caseSANG: BRC Group to buy Sangoma for $4.925 in cash plus BRC shares. Approval needs a two thirds vote and a majority of the minority, and officers and directors with about 27% support the deal. BRC’s Lingo overlaps with Sangoma in cloud voice and UCaaS, but the market is fragmented and the deal is small, so regulatory risk looks minimal. A special meeting is expected by December 11, with closing targeted for January 2027.
Activist Campaigns
- Open case
MNY: Jonathan Honig pushes MoneyHero to sell. MoneyHero runs financial product comparison sites in Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and the Philippines. Revenue is falling, losses continue and the shares are down almost 90% since the 2023 listing. Honig (9% of the Class A shares) wants a strategic review and a sale, and values the company at $1.50 a share or more.
His leverage is limited because Richard Li controls about 81% of the votes through the dual-class structure. The board’s deadline to respond passed on October 5 without a public reply.
Updates from the past week (16)
Material developments that impact the investment setup.
Key updates
Spread-0.6%
Merger Arbitrage:LCII: DOJ issued a Second Request for information on the merger, extending the HSR waiting period.
Background
Merger of equals in the outdoor recreation and housing component sectors
LCI's board unanimously rejected Monomoy Capital's unsolicited $101/share cash proposal, concluding that it undervalued the company, and reaffirmed its support for the Patrick merger. Shareholder approvals from both companies remain outstanding, with votes scheduled for November 18. The main hurdle is regulatory clearance given the substantial overlap in RV components, with the DOJ having issued a Second Request in October. Closing remains expected in H1 2027.
Open the case in Merger ArbitrageEarlier updates
LCI voluntarily withdrew and refiled its HSR Act notification, initiating a new waiting period.
LCI and Patrick filed HSR premerger notification forms with the FTC and DOJ.
Deal announcement.
Senator Mike Lee flags antitrust concerns around a potential Patrick-LCI merger, citing concentration across RV component categories and requesting information from both companies.
Spread-6.7%
Merger Arbitrage:PPC: Special committee formed to review JBS's unsolicited proposal.
Background
Controller-led privatization of a poultry producer
The proposal is non-binding and remains subject to independent special committee approval and, if definitive documents are signed, approval by a majority of votes cast by unaffiliated PPC shares. JBS owns ~82% and has stated it will not support an alternative transaction, making a third-party overbid unlikely. Regulatory risk appears limited; the main risk is special committee and minority shareholder approval.
Open the case in Merger ArbitrageEarlier updates
Deal announcement.
Activist Campaigns:MAT: Ariel Investments (5.4% holder) called for a sale, merger or major asset divestitures and urged Mattel to hire a financial adviser. Mattel said it would consider Ariel’s views.
Background
Shareholders push for sale to unlock IP value
MAT owns major toy brands including Barbie, Hot Wheels, and Fisher-Price. After years of disappointing performance, Southeastern Asset Management (owns ~4.3%) and Ariel Investments (owns ~5.4%) are pushing for a sale or major asset divestitures, arguing that MAT has failed to fully monetize its valuable brands. Southeastern estimates intrinsic value approaching $30/share and has questioned management's planned $150m investment program. MAT's longtime CEO also abruptly resigned to take a job elsewhere. His successor, a longtime MAT director with extensive experience growing and monetizing global brands, suggests a continued focus on a standalone turnaround rather than a sale. MAT says it will consider the activists' proposals but has not announced a formal strategic review. Its largest shareholder, EdgePoint (owns ~18%), also secured a board seat under a cooperation agreement involving voting commitments and standstill restrictions, without explicitly endorsing a sale. Just days after the CEO's resignation, reports emerged that Authentic Brands was considering a takeover at more than $20/share.
Open the case in Activist CampaignsEarlier updates
Authentic Brands reportedly approached Mattel about a potential acquisition valued at more than $20/share.
CEO Ynon Kreiz resigned to take a leadership role elsewhere. Director Roger Lynch was named incoming CEO and Chairman.
Southeastern Asset Management (>4% holder) launched its campaign, calling for a sale or other strategic alternatives.
Activist Campaigns:BHR: Al Shams agreed to withdraw its director nominations under a $40m settlement, including expense reimbursements. Zazove wasn't a party.
Background
Activists challenge costly management exit as board fight heads to court
BHR owns luxury hotels across the US and Caribbean. Its plan to separate from longtime external manager Ashford has drawn shareholder opposition over roughly $505m in termination payments, equivalent to 16 years of historical fees. To fund the separation, BHR has already sold four hotels for $628m and agreed to sell another for $372m. Management expects over $25m in annual savings, but several shareholders have questioned the cost and the board's independence in negotiating the deal. Al Shams (owns ~9.5%) initially challenged the board but withdrew its director slate in October after securing a $40m settlement payment. It also agreed to support management's nominees and a 10-year standstill. Brancous (owns ~0.9%) continues the fight, seeking five of eight board seats at the December 21 AGM to oversee the separation and remaining asset sales. BHR rejected its nominations on procedural grounds, and the dispute is now in court. Zazove Associates (owns 7.6%) has also criticized the termination terms and pledged to support an alternative independent board slate.
Open the case in Activist CampaignsEarlier updates
BHR agreed to sell Four Seasons Resort Scottsdale for $372m to help fund its separation from Ashford.
Zazove criticized the Ashford termination payments and restrictive nomination procedures, while supporting an alternative director slate.
BHR announced plans to become self-managed and replace most directors, targeting over $25m in annual savings.
Zazove questioned ~$505m in Ashford-related termination payments and called for greater transparency and independent oversight.
Spin-offs:CTVA: Federal court temporarily restricts capital allocation actions following a lawsuit by 15 states and Guam challenging the separation over legacy PFAS liabilities.
Background
CTVA completes breakup, separating premium genetics from crop protection
CTVA completed the spin-off of its seed genetics business as Vylor (VYLR) on October 1. The separation allows each company to focus on its own sales model, with VYLR relying on long-standing relationships with farmers and CTVA selling its crop protection products primarily through distributors. VYLR owns the Pioneer franchise and is increasingly focused on monetizing its proprietary genetics through high-margin licensing. At $72/share, VYLR trades at around 16x 2027E EBITDA. The company recently authorized a $3bn buyback, equivalent to 6% of its market cap.
Post-spin, the remaining CTVA is valued as a more cyclical crop protection business. At $11.64/share, CTVA trades at around 5x 2027E EBITDA. Pricing remains under pressure as older products lose patent protection and face competition from cheaper generics. A lawsuit brought by 15 US states and Guam remains a key overhang. The plaintiffs allege that the spin-off transferred valuable seed assets to Vylor while leaving CTVA responsible for liabilities stemming from past chemical pollution. The states are seeking to reverse the asset transfers, potentially exposing VYLR's assets to legacy claims. The companies dispute the allegations, and an earlier court order restricting dividends and buybacks has been temporarily suspended on appeal.
Open the case in Spin-offsEarlier updates
CTVA completes the tax-free distribution of Vylor, with shareholders receiving one VYLR share per CTVA share. VYLR begins NYSE trading at $66/share.
Vylor outlines its standalone financial targets, including ~$2.8bn in 2026 operating EBITDA and $3.3–3.7bn by 2029.
CTVA announces plans to separate its Seed and Crop Protection businesses into two independent publicly traded companies.
Other updates
Merger Arbitrage
Spread0.0%
ACVA: The tender offer expiration was extended to October 15, 2026; as of now c. 52.84% of shares were validly tendered.
Background
Buyout of a digital wholesale vehicle marketplace by Copart
Majority tender acceptance has been achieved, with over 52% of shares tendered as of the initial expiration. There is no financing condition. HSR review is the main uncertainty given wholesale remarketing overlap.
Open the case in Merger ArbitrageEarlier updates
Copart extended the tender offer expiration to October 7, 2026; as of the original expiration, approximately 47.78% of shares were validly tendered.
Copart voluntarily withdrew and refiled its HSR premerger notification to extend review time; waiting period now expected to expire Oct 13, 2026.
Deal announcement.
Spread-0.5%
BOW: Texas state DOI non-objection letter received on September 15, and HSR waiting period expired on September 28.
Background
Acquisition of a specialty insurer by its strategic insurance partner
Shareholder approval remains the key hurdle given the modest 11% premium. American Family is already a minority stockholder and longstanding strategic partner, limiting overbid potential. Texas DOI non-objection and HSR waiting period expiry have been obtained, and there is no financing contingency.
Open the case in Merger ArbitrageEarlier updates
Preliminary proxy filed.
Deal announcement.
Spread-1.7%
CSR: Definitive proxy filed; special shareholder meeting set for November 10, 2026.
Background
Merger of two U.S. multifamily REITs
Approval from both shareholder bases is required and is not yet secured. Regulatory risk appears limited, and the transaction has no financing condition. The main uncertainty is lender-consent timing, which could push closing beyond the earliest end-Q4 2026 target.
Open the case in Merger ArbitrageEarlier updates
Deal announcement.
Strategic Reviews
CRMT: Lenders extended temporary covenant relief through October 15; company reports significant progress in strategic discussions.
Background
Distressed used-car retailer and subprime lender exploring recapitalization or sale
CRMT is a used-car retailer and subprime auto lender facing a severe liquidity squeeze. The company is reviewing financing, recapitalization, restructuring and a potential sale while operating under temporary debt covenant relief. Limited liquidity has forced CRMT to cut vehicle purchases and new lending, contributing to a 57% decline in Q1 FY27 revenue, while credit performance has also deteriorated and losses remain heavy. The balance sheet still includes close to $900m of finance receivables and a book value of around $45/share, but the value of these assets is heavily dependent on credit performance. The immediate priority is securing enough capital or another transaction to stabilize the business.
Open the case in Strategic ReviewsEarlier updates
Lenders extended temporary covenant relief through October 8; company reports significant progress in strategic discussions.
Lenders extended temporary covenant relief through October 1 while strategic and financing discussions continue.
Q1 results showed an 81.9% drop in retail units and roughly $69m common loss as funding constraints hit operations.
Lender relief was tied to transaction milestones, cash budgets and a reconstituted special committee.
BGL: Management disclosed that liquidity raises substantial doubt about the company's ability to continue as a going concern through October 2027.
Background
Junior gold miner fighting to regain control of its main mine
BGL is a junior gold miner whose main asset is the Bogoso-Prestea mine in Ghana. The mine had already stopped operating when BGL acquired it in 2024 with the intention of restarting production. Later that year, Ghana’s Minerals Commission moved to terminate the mining leases and took control of the site. BGL disputes the termination and is pursuing international arbitration to recover the asset. The company launched a strategic review in September 2026, with financing, restructuring, and potential sales of non-core assets under consideration. Liquidity is tight, with just $0.6m of cash and a $17.9m working-capital deficit as of June. BGL has since paid $300,000 to defer a 3i note payment twice, and the payment remained outstanding when the latest financial statements were issued.
Open the case in Strategic ReviewsEarlier updates
Paid $200,000 to defer a 3i note payment until October 5, underscoring the company’s liquidity pressure.
Launched a special-committee strategic review covering financing, restructuring and potential asset sales.
Completed a leadership reset ahead of the strategic review.
Announced a procedural win in its arbitration over the terminated Ghana mining rights; no liability or damages decision was reached.
INV: Entered into a $60M ATM offering agreement with Lucid Capital Markets; ended further use of the Yorkville SEPA after issuing $1.69M in shares. Proceeds would be used to finance Accelsius operations.
Background
Industrial-tech holdco raising capital and monetizing assets after a major setback
INV owns stakes in three early-stage industrial technology companies, with most of its implied value tied to data-center cooling business Accelsius. In August, a large planned Accelsius installation was cancelled after the customer lost access to the intended data-center site. The technology itself did not fail, but the lost order forced Accelsius to drop its near-term financial targets and triggered a sharp selloff in INV shares. INV owns 43% of Accelsius, which was valued at $665m in its last funding round, although that valuation predates the lost deployment. The company is now cutting parent-level spending, looking for additional financing and seeking to monetize AeroFlexx, an early-stage packaging business in which it owns roughly 37%. AeroFlexx has little revenue today but a commercial pipeline of around $35m and no recent third-party valuation has been disclosed.
Open the case in Strategic ReviewsEarlier updates
Reoriented the company around Accelsius and further cut expected parent-level quarterly cash expenses to roughly $3.2m by year-end.
Began exploring strategic alternatives, including an AeroFlexx monetization and additional parent-level financing; said Refinity would no longer receive Innventure funding after Q3.
Removed the DarkNX deployment from Accelsius bookings after the planned site became unavailable, withdrew 2026 Accelsius revenue/cash-flow targets and acknowledged that additional Innventure capital would be required.
Activist Campaigns
DVN: Devon agreed to sell its Eagle Ford assets to Crescent Energy for $4.2bn cash, with closing expected around year-end.
Background
Activists push for further asset sales or outright takeover
DVN is a major US oil and gas producer with a core position in the Permian Basin. Its recent merger with Coterra left it with operations spread across several basins, raising concerns that the sprawling portfolio obscures the value of its core business. Management has launched a portfolio review to refocus on the Permian and agreed to sell its Eagle Ford operations for $4.2bn, with proceeds earmarked for buybacks and debt reduction. However, TOMS Capital (owns 0.9%, plus call options on another 1.2%) is pushing for a sale of the entire company rather than a lengthy series of individual divestitures. In September, TOMS valued DVN at 4.5x 2027E EBITDA at around $48/share, at least one turn below peers. Kimmeridge (owns 1.4%) is also pressing for more aggressive action, calling for another $10bn in asset sales or a sale of the entire company. Despite the pressure, DVN has not announced a company-wide sale process.
Open the case in Activist CampaignsEarlier updates
TOMS escalated its campaign, calling for a potential company sale and highlighting a valuation discount to peers.
TOMS's campaign became public, with the activist pushing for accelerated divestitures or a sale of Devon.
EMPD: Delaware Supreme Court upheld the ruling validating ATG's nominations. ISS supports two nominees, Glass Lewis three and Egan-Jones all four.
Background
Bitcoin treasury company faces board challenge amid AI infrastructure pivot
EMPD is a Bitcoin digital-asset treasury (DAT) company trading at a significant discount to NAV. The company is now expanding into the AI data-center business. ATG Capital (owns 16%) is pushing for board changes, criticizing management's repeated strategic pivots and capital allocation. The activist initially nominated nine directors, then reduced its slate to four. Empery rejected the nominations, leading to a legal battle that ended on October 8 when the Delaware Supreme Court ruled in ATG's favor. At the October 14 annual meeting, shareholders elected all nine Empery-nominated directors. Shareholders also rejected the 2025 Equity Incentive Plan. Following the loss, ATG filed a Section 225 action in Delaware on October 16 seeking to remove director Ian Read and replace him with Gabriel Gliksberg. Management continues to defend its AI strategy.
Open the case in Activist CampaignsEarlier updates
ATG reduced its slate from nine directors to four ahead of the October 14 annual meeting.
Delaware Chancery Court ruled that the board improperly rejected ATG's nominations and breached its fiduciary duties.
Empery terminated its 12.5% poison pill ahead of schedule.
Empery announced a proposed $65m investment in an AI data-center project, expanding beyond its Bitcoin treasury strategy.
Spin-offs
FLEX: FLEX announces a proposed $2bn convertible preferred investment in Axiom led by General Catalyst and Koch Equity Development at an initial $37.5bn EV. Shareholder approval meeting scheduled for November 2.
Background
FLEX plans AI infrastructure spin-off amid valuation disconnect
LEX plans to spin off Axiom, its fast-growing data-center infrastructure business, from its slower-growing contract manufacturing operations. Axiom's revenue has grown by over 35% annually for two consecutive years, driven by surging demand for AI infrastructure. It now accounts for nearly 30% of FLEX's revenue and over 40% of segment operating profit. The separation could help Axiom attract a valuation closer to AI infrastructure peers like Vertiv. At $86/share, FLEX trades at 14x FY2027 guided adjusted operating profit, well below Vertiv's 25x FY2026 guided multiple. More importantly, investors recently committed $2bn to Axiom through convertible preferred shares at a $37.5bn enterprise valuation, nearly matching FLEX's entire $39bn pro forma EV. FLEX's remaining manufacturing businesses generated $1.2bn in operating income last year and are expected to grow revenue 8–11% in FY2027. Following the separation, FLEX plans to monetize its retained minority stake in Axiom to reduce debt. The spin-off is targeted for Q1 2027.
Open the case in Spin-offsEarlier updates
FLEX files Axiom's Form 10, confirming the planned AXM ticker and proposed distribution of 88–94% of SpinCo shares.
FLEX agrees to acquire EPC Power for $4.4bn, expanding Axiom's power-conversion and electrical infrastructure capabilities.
FLEX reports continued strong growth in its cloud and power infrastructure business and announces additional SpinCo leadership appointments.
FLEX announces plans to separate its cloud and power infrastructure business into an independent publicly traded company, targeting Q1 2027.
MSGS: MSGR's Form 10 becomes effective, clearing a key regulatory milestone ahead of the separation.
Background
MSGS separates two historic New York sports franchises
MSGS has separated its two main sports franchises, the New York Rangers and the New York Knicks. The Rangers now trade as MSGR and the Knicks as MSGK, accounting for 30% and 70% of the former group's revenue, respectively. The two companies still have a combined enterprise value of around $10bn, broadly unchanged from before the split. At $313/share, MSGK trades at a $7.6bn EV against Forbes' $13bn estimate for the Knicks, while MSGR trades at $2.6bn at $218/share against Sportico's $4bn valuation of the Rangers. Both are trophy sports franchises, and the split could make it easier to sell minority stakes in either team, raising cash and providing clearer benchmarks for their standalone values. Another interesting aspect is an upcoming US tax change that limits salary deductions for highly paid players at publicly traded teams. MSGS previously estimated at least $60m in additional annual taxes from FY2028, potentially giving the Dolan family another incentive to take either franchise private. However, proposed legislation to exempt professional athletes could eliminate much of this additional cost. Both stocks began trading separately on October 27.
Open the case in Spin-offsEarlier updates
MSGS board approves the distribution of 100% of MSGR shares at a ratio of one MSGR share for every two MSGS shares, with completion scheduled for October 26.
MSGS publicly files MSGR's Form 10, providing audited carve-out financials and proposed standalone operating arrangements.
MSGS announces plans to separate the New York Knicks and New York Rangers into independently traded companies.
Buybacks
Authorization18%of market cap
IIIV: IIIV establishes a new $350m revolving credit facility, replacing its previous $400m facility.
Background
i3 Verticals doubles down on buybacks as shares slide
IIIV provides software to state and local governments. After selling its payments and healthcare businesses for a combined $536m in 2024–25, IIIV began directing more capital toward buybacks. The pace accelerated as shares nearly halved from their October 2025 high amid slowing growth, delayed software implementations, and repeated guidance cuts. IIIV exhausted a $50m buyback program announced in August 2025 and replaced it with a $60m authorization in February 2026, which was itself fully spent by May. Management subsequently approved another $100m program. During the first nine months of FY2026, IIIV repurchased $138m of shares, reducing its total common-equivalent share count by nearly 18%. Another $74m remains authorized, equivalent to 16% of the current market cap. Buybacks substantially exceeded the $30m in FCF generated during the first nine months of FY2026, although IIIV still has $286m available under its revolving credit facility. At around $18/share, IIIV trades at 9.9x FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance.
Open the case in BuybacksEarlier updates
Q3 results show weak revenue growth and implementation delays, prompting management to reduce FY2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance.
IIIV reports ~$138m in repurchases during the first nine months of FY2026, with $73.7m remaining under the latest authorization.
IIIV authorizes a new $100m buyback, replacing its fully utilized $60m program.
IIIV completes the $96m sale of its healthcare revenue-cycle management business to Infinx.