New ideas (4)
Cases added to the trackers this week.
Merger Arbitrage
Spread31.6%
Open caseSSTI: Transom starts its tender for SSTI at $8.00 in cash plus a $3.00 CVR. The CVR pays up to $3.00 depending on 2027 ShotSpotter and SafePointe revenue. The tender needs more than half of the outstanding shares, and Veradace and Gary Lauder affiliates have already committed about 32.8%. Financing is committed and is not a condition. Transom has no disclosed operating overlap, so regulatory risk looks minimal.
Spread1.6%
Open caseBWIN: Sequence AI and DFO to buy BWIN for $32.50 a share in cash. Shareholder approval is required and looks likely given the large premium and support agreements with some holders. HSR and insurance change-of-control reviews remain but appear manageable. The preliminary proxy was filed on October 15.
Spread49.7%
Open caseYI: 111’s founders propose a take-private at $4.52 per ADS. The proposal is preliminary and non-binding. The buyer group is the two co-founders and Huadeng Tech BioArray Ventures, and the deal would be funded entirely with equity. The same founders tried a take-private in 2022 and withdrew it in 2024 without agreeing terms with the special committee. Their voting control makes a competing bid unlikely, so the main risk is again whether the two sides can agree on price and terms. A new special committee was formed on September 28.
Buybacks
Authorization12%of market cap
Open caseRDCM: RADCOM can start its $20m buyback. RADCOM makes network monitoring software for telecom operators. After shareholders forced a board overhaul in May, the shares fell 44% from their May high when delayed deployments cut the 2026 revenue outlook by 24%. The new board authorized a $20m buyback in September, about 12% of the market cap, and the 30-day creditor objection period ended on October 17. Cash of $110m equals 64% of the market cap, and the shares trade at about 1.0x 2026 sales.
Updates from the past week (17)
Material developments that impact the investment setup.
Key updates
Spread2.4%
Merger Arbitrage:AXTA: Axalta announces planned divestiture of its North American Building Products business to address regulatory requirements; merger remains on track to close in Q1 2027. AkzoNobel reports two thirds of regulatory approvals secured, plans to divest European VR and North American Wood businesses for phase 1 clearance; closing on track for early 2027.
Background
Merger of two global coatings companies
Shareholder approval has been secured on both sides. Around two-thirds of regulatory clearances have been obtained, with U.S. and EU approvals still pending. To address antitrust concerns, Axalta plans to divest its North American wood coatings business and AkzoNobel its European vehicle-refinishing business. The companies expect these remedies to facilitate regulatory clearance, with closing targeted for Q1 2027.
Open the case in Merger ArbitrageEarlier updates
AkzoNobel announced the date of the EGM on November 30, 2026.
AkzoNobel rejects unsolicited €73.00/share bid from Nippon Paint/Sherwin-Williams joint proposal, citing inadequate price and insufficient deal certainty; boards reaffirm Axalta merger recommendation.
UK CMA opens public comment period on merger; comments due May 1, 2026.
Artisan Partners increases its stake to 11.5%.
Spread13.6%
Merger Arbitrage:LNTH: FTC issued Second Request to Lantheus and Curium, extending HSR waiting period; parties still target H1 2027 closing.
Background
Buyout of a radiopharmaceutical diagnostics company by Curium
Shareholder approval has been obtained. Regulatory clearance remains the main hurdle given both companies’ radiopharmaceutical exposure. On Oct 21, the FTC issued a Second Request, extending the review process. Closing is still expected in H1 2027, with the spread reflecting the lengthy regulatory timeline and uncertainty around the CVR’s value.
Open the case in Merger ArbitrageEarlier updates
Shareholders approved the merger agreement with Curium at a special meeting.
Parties voluntarily withdrew and resubmitted their HSR filing to give the FTC additional time to complete its review. The new deadline is October 21.
Definitive proxy filed; special shareholder meeting scheduled for October 14, 2026.
Preliminary proxy statement filed.
Activist Campaigns:MAT: Mattel entered a cooperation agreement with ~18% holder EdgePoint, appointing EdgePoint partner Lee Matheson to the board; agreement includes voting and standstill terms through the 2027 annual meeting.
Background
Shareholders push for sale to unlock IP value
MAT owns major toy brands including Barbie, Hot Wheels, and Fisher-Price. After years of disappointing performance, Southeastern Asset Management (owns ~4.3%) and Ariel Investments (owns ~5.4%) are pushing for a sale or major asset divestitures, arguing that MAT has failed to fully monetize its valuable brands. Southeastern estimates intrinsic value approaching $30/share and has questioned management's planned $150m investment program. MAT's longtime CEO also abruptly resigned to take a job elsewhere. His successor, a longtime MAT director with extensive experience growing and monetizing global brands, suggests a continued focus on a standalone turnaround rather than a sale. MAT says it will consider the activists' proposals but has not announced a formal strategic review. Its largest shareholder, EdgePoint (owns ~18%), also secured a board seat under a cooperation agreement involving voting commitments and standstill restrictions, without explicitly endorsing a sale. Just days after the CEO's resignation, reports emerged that Authentic Brands was considering a takeover at more than $20/share.
Open the case in Activist CampaignsEarlier updates
Mattel amends CEO Roger Lynch's contract, raising change-in-control severance to 2.99x and adding a 280G gross-up for deals through Dec 31, 2028.
Ariel Investments (5.4% holder) called for a sale, merger or major asset divestitures and urged Mattel to hire a financial adviser. Mattel said it would consider Ariel’s views.
Authentic Brands reportedly approached Mattel about a potential acquisition valued at more than $20/share.
CEO Ynon Kreiz resigned to take a leadership role elsewhere. Director Roger Lynch was named incoming CEO and Chairman.
Activist Campaigns:FUL: FUL rejected Ancora's revised offer for its building-adhesives division but announced a market check for selected noncore businesses, expected to conclude by year-end. FUL issued $850m of 7.625% notes due 2034 to help finance the AMS acquisition, replacing its $917m bridge facility. $450m of the notes must be redeemed if the acquisition fails to close by the applicable deadline, initially June 25, 2027.
Background
Activist pushes for asset sales and strategic review
FUL manufactures specialty adhesives used in packaging, healthcare, construction, and industrial products. Ancora (owns ~2.3%) is pushing for asset sales to reduce FUL's debt burden and unlock value. The activist has also tried to buy FUL's building-adhesives division outright, a business accounting for about 20% of sales. Its latest offer of up to $1.4bn could substantially reduce FUL's $2bn net debt, particularly ahead of its planned acquisition of a UK-based peer for over $800m. However, the board rejected both offers, arguing that the division was worth more and that separating it would create operational inefficiencies and add a significant cost burden. Instead, FUL has begun exploring sales of smaller, noncore businesses, with the review expected to conclude by year-end. Ancora considers this insufficient and is now demanding a full strategic review, including a potential sale of the entire company. The activist has also left the door open to bidding for the entire company outright or launching a proxy fight. FUL has a staggered board, making it harder for Ancora to take control.
Open the case in Activist CampaignsEarlier updates
Ancora increased its cash offer for the building-adhesives division to $1.2–1.4bn, supported by a financing confidence letter from Fortress.
FUL rejected Ancora's initial offer, arguing that it undervalued the division and overlooked significant separation costs.
Ancora offered $1.1–1.2bn in cash to acquire FUL's building-adhesives division.
FUL announced an agreement to acquire UK-based Advanced Medical Solutions despite Ancora's opposition.
Spin-offs:CTVA: Appeals court stays the temporary restrictions on dividends, repurchases and extraordinary asset transfers while the PFAS litigation proceeds. VYLR announces a $3bn share repurchase authorization and declares a $0.13 quarterly dividend. The district court pauses the PFAS litigation pending a decision on transferring the case to existing multidistrict proceedings.
Background
CTVA completes breakup, separating premium genetics from crop protection
CTVA completed the spin-off of its seed genetics business as Vylor (VYLR) on October 1. The separation allows each company to focus on its own sales model, with VYLR relying on long-standing relationships with farmers and CTVA selling its crop protection products primarily through distributors. VYLR owns the Pioneer franchise and is increasingly focused on monetizing its proprietary genetics through high-margin licensing. At $72/share, VYLR trades at around 16x 2027E EBITDA. The company recently authorized a $3bn buyback, equivalent to 6% of its market cap.
Post-spin, the remaining CTVA is valued as a more cyclical crop protection business. At $11.64/share, CTVA trades at around 5x 2027E EBITDA. Pricing remains under pressure as older products lose patent protection and face competition from cheaper generics. A lawsuit brought by 15 US states and Guam remains a key overhang. The plaintiffs allege that the spin-off transferred valuable seed assets to Vylor while leaving CTVA responsible for liabilities stemming from past chemical pollution. The states are seeking to reverse the asset transfers, potentially exposing VYLR's assets to legacy claims. The companies dispute the allegations, and an earlier court order restricting dividends and buybacks has been temporarily suspended on appeal.
Open the case in Spin-offsEarlier updates
Federal court temporarily restricts capital allocation actions following a lawsuit by 15 states and Guam challenging the separation over legacy PFAS liabilities.
CTVA completes the tax-free distribution of Vylor, with shareholders receiving one VYLR share per CTVA share. VYLR begins NYSE trading at $66/share.
Vylor outlines its standalone financial targets, including ~$2.8bn in 2026 operating EBITDA and $3.3–3.7bn by 2029.
CTVA announces plans to separate its Seed and Crop Protection businesses into two independent publicly traded companies.
Other updates
Merger Arbitrage
Spread28.0%
UNF: UniFirst and Cintas certified compliance with FTC Second Request and CCB SIR; merger cannot close before Dec 11, 2026; deal expected to close by the end of calendar 2026.
Background
Acquisition of a uniform and workplace services provider by a larger peer
Shareholder approval is effectively locked in, with entities affiliated with the Croatti family controlling roughly two-thirds of the voting power and agreeing to vote in favor of the deal. Closing is expected in the second half of 2026 and remains subject to regulatory approvals. The merger will likely face antitrust scrutiny given it combines two of the largest players in the North American uniform rental market.
Open the case in Merger ArbitrageEarlier updates
Definitive proxy filed; shareholder vote set for June 11, 2026.
Form S-4 registration statement filed; H2 2026 close expected.
Deal announcement.
Spread0.8%
MKTX: DOJ and FTC granted early termination of the HSR waiting period, satisfying the HSR Act condition to close the merger.
Background
Acquisition of an institutional fixed-income trading platform by ICE
Shareholder approval has been secured. The HSR waiting period received early termination on October 21, satisfying the U.S. antitrust condition. Other regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions remain outstanding, but no major hurdles are apparent. Closing is now expected in Q1 2027.
Open the case in Merger ArbitrageEarlier updates
Parties voluntarily withdrew HSR filings on Sep 25 to provide DOJ additional review time, refiled Sep 29; HSR waiting period now expires Oct 29, 2026.
Definitive proxy filed; special stockholder meeting set for October 29, 2026.
Preliminary proxy filed.
Deal announcement.
Spread-0.1%
VAL: Bermuda court Sanction Hearing scheduled for Nov 26, 2026; Valaris anticipates closing on or about Dec 1, 2026.
Background
Merger of two major global offshore drilling contractors
Shareholder approval from both companies remains outstanding. Given support agreements covering roughly 9% of Transocean and 18% of Valaris shares, shareholder approval appears likely. All required regulatory approvals have been obtained. The parties anticipate closing on or about December 1, 2026.
Open the case in Merger ArbitrageEarlier updates
Definitive joint proxy statement filed and mailed; Transocean EGM and Valaris Court Meeting scheduled for Nov 24, 2026.
Brazilian antitrust authority CADE approved the Valaris/Transocean business combination without restrictions; decision expected to become final after publication and a 15-day waiting period, completing all regulatory approval conditions.
DOJ closed HSR antitrust investigation; HSR waiting period expired.
Valaris/Transocean received CFIUS approval; DOJ Second Request remains ongoing, with parties agreeing not to certify substantial compliance before Jul 31.
Spread2.0%
VREX: Company files supplemental proxy disclosures; HSR waiting period expires Nov 19, NSIA review period runs until Nov 18.
Background
Acquisition of an X-ray imaging components manufacturer by Teledyne
Shareholder approval has been obtained. The regulatory clearances remain. Regulatory risk appears limited given the minimal product overlap. The spread primarily reflects the early-2027 closing timeline.
Open the case in Merger ArbitrageEarlier updates
Definitive proxy filed; special shareholder meeting set for October 28, 2026.
Preliminary proxy filed.
Deal announcement.
Strategic Reviews
INV: David Yablunosky departed as CFO; Eric Stober became CFO as finance, accounting, IR, and communications were consolidated under him. Ascent Capital Partners (10.7%) sent a letter to the board criticizing the planned issuance of up to $60M in equity at a valuation it considers significantly below intrinsic value, warning of shareholder dilution and urging the board to reconsider its capital allocation strategy. Nasdaq notified Innventure that its common stock no longer satisfies the $1.00 minimum bid price requirement; company has 180 days to regain compliance.
Background
Industrial-tech holdco raising capital and monetizing assets after a major setback
INV owns stakes in three early-stage industrial technology companies, with most of its implied value tied to data-center cooling business Accelsius. In August, a large planned Accelsius installation was cancelled after the customer lost access to the intended data-center site. The technology itself did not fail, but the lost order forced Accelsius to drop its near-term financial targets and triggered a sharp selloff in INV shares. INV owns 43% of Accelsius, which was valued at $665m in its last funding round, although that valuation predates the lost deployment. The company is now cutting parent-level spending, looking for additional financing and seeking to monetize AeroFlexx, an early-stage packaging business in which it owns roughly 37%. AeroFlexx has little revenue today but a commercial pipeline of around $35m and no recent third-party valuation has been disclosed.
Open the case in Strategic ReviewsEarlier updates
Entered into a $60M ATM offering agreement with Lucid Capital Markets; ended further use of the Yorkville SEPA after issuing $1.69M in shares. Proceeds would be used to finance Accelsius operations.
Reoriented the company around Accelsius and further cut expected parent-level quarterly cash expenses to roughly $3.2m by year-end.
Began exploring strategic alternatives, including an AeroFlexx monetization and additional parent-level financing; said Refinity would no longer receive Innventure funding after Q3.
Removed the DarkNX deployment from Accelsius bookings after the planned site became unavailable, withdrew 2026 Accelsius revenue/cash-flow targets and acknowledged that additional Innventure capital would be required.
GEHC: PCS President and CEO Jeannette Bankes resigned; Neal Sandy appointed as her successor effective Nov 16, 2026.
Background
Large medtech reviewing options for its underperforming segment
GEHC is a large medical technology company reviewing strategic options for Patient Care Solutions, its smallest segment. PCS generated roughly $3.1bn of revenue in 2025, about 15% of the company's total. Its performance has deteriorated sharply in 2026 as supply and fulfillment problems prevented strong orders from turning into shipments. Q2 revenue fell 13%, and the segment swung from a $60m profit a year earlier to a $26m loss. GEHC expects supply conditions to improve in the second half, but is also considering a potential sale or other alternatives for the business.
Open the case in Strategic ReviewsEarlier updates
Management said the near-term priority is fixing PCS operations, with a further strategic-review update expected around February 2027.
Launched a formal strategic review of Patient Care Solutions, including a potential sale or other transaction.
CRMT: Lenders extended covenant relief through November 1 and provided $5.0 million incremental term loans; company redeemed all ABS notes, releasing ~$92 million in receivables.
Background
Distressed used-car retailer and subprime lender exploring recapitalization or sale
CRMT is a used-car retailer and subprime auto lender facing a severe liquidity squeeze. The company is reviewing financing, recapitalization, restructuring and a potential sale while operating under temporary debt covenant relief. Limited liquidity has forced CRMT to cut vehicle purchases and new lending, contributing to a 57% decline in Q1 FY27 revenue, while credit performance has also deteriorated and losses remain heavy. The balance sheet still includes close to $900m of finance receivables and a book value of around $45/share, but the value of these assets is heavily dependent on credit performance. The immediate priority is securing enough capital or another transaction to stabilize the business.
Open the case in Strategic ReviewsEarlier updates
Lenders extended temporary covenant relief through October 22; company reports significant progress towards a transaction.
Lenders extended temporary covenant relief through October 15; company reports significant progress in strategic discussions.
Lenders extended temporary covenant relief through October 8; company reports significant progress in strategic discussions.
Lenders extended temporary covenant relief through October 1 while strategic and financing discussions continue.
Activist Campaigns
DVN: Kimmeridge called the $4.2bn Eagle Ford sale insufficient and urged DVN to divest another $10bn of noncore assets or sell the entire company.
Background
Activists push for further asset sales or outright takeover
DVN is a major US oil and gas producer with a core position in the Permian Basin. Its recent merger with Coterra left it with operations spread across several basins, raising concerns that the sprawling portfolio obscures the value of its core business. Management has launched a portfolio review to refocus on the Permian and agreed to sell its Eagle Ford operations for $4.2bn, with proceeds earmarked for buybacks and debt reduction. However, TOMS Capital (owns 0.9%, plus call options on another 1.2%) is pushing for a sale of the entire company rather than a lengthy series of individual divestitures. In September, TOMS valued DVN at 4.5x 2027E EBITDA at around $48/share, at least one turn below peers. Kimmeridge (owns 1.4%) is also pressing for more aggressive action, calling for another $10bn in asset sales or a sale of the entire company. Despite the pressure, DVN has not announced a company-wide sale process.
Open the case in Activist CampaignsEarlier updates
Devon agreed to sell its Eagle Ford assets to Crescent Energy for $4.2bn cash, with closing expected around year-end.
TOMS escalated its campaign, calling for a potential company sale and highlighting a valuation discount to peers.
TOMS's campaign became public, with the activist pushing for accelerated divestitures or a sale of Devon.
ETD: Independent proxy advisory firm Egan-Jones recommended shareholders vote for all five of DGB's nominees and withhold from all incumbents at Ethan Allen's Nov 4 annual meeting.
Background
Activist seeks full board takeover to reverse prolonged sales decline
ETD manufactures and sells furniture through its own factories and retail stores. The business has struggled with a multi-year sales decline, with annual revenue falling from $1.1bn in FY2006 to $580m in FY2026. DGB Investment (owns 5.2%) blames outdated merchandising, weak e-commerce execution, and years of poor management under CEO Farooq Kathwari (owns 9%), who has led ETD since 1988. The activist has nominated five directors to replace the entire board and overhaul the business. Amid the campaign, ETD paid a $3/share special dividend in September and committed to naming Kathwari's successor by June 2027. DGB criticized the dividend, arguing that the cash should instead fund growth initiatives. Glass Lewis and Egan-Jones support all five activist nominees, while ISS backs two dissidents and three incumbents. At ~$20/share, ETD trades at 13x FY2026 adjusted earnings. Shareholders will vote on all five board seats at the November 4 AGM.
Open the case in Activist CampaignsEarlier updates
DGB filed a definitive proxy statement and WHITE universal proxy card and posted campaign materials supporting its director slate.
ETD urged shareholders to reject DGB's five-director slate and backed the incumbent board.
ETD announced plans to name a successor to longtime CEO Farooq Kathwari by June 30, 2027.
DGB increased its stake to 5.2% and reduced its slate from six to five nominees following the board-size reduction.
Spin-offs
CMCSA: CMCSA reaffirms its mid-2027 separation target and confirms standalone implementation work is underway. Management expects over $1bn in Q4 restructuring charges, primarily related to its broader operating transformation.
Background
CMCSA plans NBCUniversal spin-off to unlock media business value
CMCSA plans to spin off NBCUniversal and Sky together into one publicly traded company, leaving Comcast focused on its US broadband and wireless operations. The new company will own NBC's television networks, Universal's film studios and theme parks, Peacock streaming, and Sky's European businesses. Together, these assets represent roughly half of Comcast's revenue. At $23/share, CMCSA trades at around 5x TTM adjusted EBITDA, despite owning valuable media franchises and theme park assets that could attract higher valuations independently. The separation could also give NBCUniversal greater flexibility to participate in media industry consolidation. Meanwhile, the remaining Comcast will be more exposed to growing competition from fiber and fixed-wireless providers. The company has suspended buybacks ahead of the separation and may retain up to 19.9% of NBCUniversal, with plans to monetize the stake within a year to help reduce debt. The spin-off is targeted for mid-2027.
Open the case in Spin-offsEarlier updates
UK government considers intervening in Sky's proposed ITV Media & Entertainment acquisition on public-interest grounds.
CMCSA appoints Christopher Halpin as CFO of the future NBCUniversal.
CMCSA confirms NBCUniversal will include Media, Studios, Theme Parks and Sky businesses, while reiterating mid-2027 completion guidance.
Sky agrees to acquire ITV Media & Entertainment for up to £1.6bn, with closing targeted for H2 2027.
Buybacks
Authorization29%of market cap
CRM: Salesforce agrees to acquire Braze for ~$5.66bn in enterprise value, adding a substantial future cash commitment alongside its remaining buyback authorization.
Background
Salesforce takes on substantial debt to accelerate buybacks following SaaS selloff
Salesforce is the world's largest customer relationship management software provider, focused on sales and marketing. The stock fell 30% from the end of 2025 to its February low of $185 amid a broad SaaS selloff driven by AI disruption fears. Against this backdrop, Salesforce announced a $50bn buyback, equivalent to 29% of its market cap at the time. Half of that buyback authorization was used almost immediately through a $25bn debt-funded accelerated repurchase. By August, Salesforce had reduced its outstanding share count by 11%. This represents a substantial acceleration in capital returns relative to the company's $15bn in annual FCF. Another $22.9bn remained authorized at July-end, equivalent to 11.5% of market cap. At the October 28 share price of $242, the stock traded at around 13× trailing FCF.
Open the case in BuybacksEarlier updates
Salesforce reports Q2 FY2027 results and ~$22.9bn in remaining buyback capacity at July-end. Management maintains its forecast for 4–5% FCF growth in FY2027.
Salesforce funds its $25bn accelerated share repurchase using proceeds from newly issued debt, receiving approximately 103m shares initially.
Salesforce announces a $50bn replacement buyback authorization, equivalent to ~29% of its market capitalization at announcement.
Authorization32%of market cap
HOG: Majority-owned LiveWire establishes a special restructuring committee to evaluate financing, recapitalization and potential strategic transactions.
Background
Harley-Davidson retains substantial buyback capacity following financing business monetization
HOG manufactures motorcycles and provides customer financing through Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS). In 2024, the company announced plans to repurchase $1bn of shares through 2026. A year later, HOG agreed to sell more than $5bn of consumer loans and a minority stake in HDFS to KKR and PIMCO. The transaction unlocked around $1.25bn in cash, including $500m initially earmarked for buybacks. By Q1 2026, the company had executed $726m of its original target. New management subsequently abandoned the original $1bn spending target to prioritize the motorcycle business turnaround, but continued opportunistic repurchases, including $91m in Q3 2026. Another 12m shares remain authorized, worth approximately $375m or 12% of market cap at around $31/share. As of Q3 end, HOG's motorcycle business held approximately $1.1bn in net cash.
Open the case in BuybacksEarlier updates
HOG introduces its Back to the Bricks turnaround strategy, focusing on dealer profitability, inventory reductions and manufacturing efficiency.
HOG completes its $200m accelerated share repurchase, retiring approximately 9.44m shares at an average price of $21.19.
Artie Starrs becomes CEO, following an earlier activist campaign by H Partners seeking management and governance changes.
HOG announces the HDFS transaction with KKR and PIMCO, unlocking ~$1.25bn in discretionary cash. The board also expands its repurchase authorization by 15m shares.